Those present heard thatVietnam should widen its export focus to include garments, footwear, electronics, labourexport, marine products, tourism and crude oil over the next ten years, in order tosucceed in the global trading - game opened up by the BTA.

Senior technical advisor Alain Chevalier first remarked on"the government's constant efforts to shift the economic policy away from importsubstitution to export orientation, liberalising and embracing the market economy.

"In the past few years, the country has respondedquickly to the outsourcing of labour intensive manufacturing like garments, footwear andelectronics from the newly industrialized countries with their high labour costs," hesaid.

However, think, tanks warned of a potential hazard.

Chevalier remarked at the seminar: "Vietnam is avictim of its own success in exports of agricultural commodities, making it vulnerable tooversupply and the cyclical changing prices of some key commodities.

"That will limit the value added earning from exportsof key industrial commodities and should be adjusted as soon as possible;" theseminar heard.

"Another potential limit on further growth is thatvalue-adding in key manufacturing exports is low and highly dependent. Most localcompanies are now operating as sub-contractors with no direct links, though these can becompetitive due to low wages," he said.

'This industrial structure is geared mainly for importsubstitution and is heavily protected, making the transition a difficult one," hesaid.

Another hindrance to further growth was attributed toVietnam remaining passive in relation to outside markets.

Chevalier also gave assessments on how Vietnam couldmaintain high export growth rates while undertaking the transition to higher value-addedproducts and services, and eventually knowledge-based exports.

"Asia is Vietnam's most important market, accountingfor 60 per cent of its trade. This traditional market should be well maintained, asunderlined in the ten year strategy," he said.

However, China was a rapidly emerging market, while Japanand many other Asian markets were currently stagnant. China was emerging as Vietnam's keycompetitor, especially after its accession to the World Trade Organisation.

"Vietnamese exporters should be ready to jump in thelargest world market the US - which now has the most potential to - support sustainedgrowth for Vietnam," Chevalier stressed.

Despite some tough conclusions, international experts werestill giving rosy assessments of the dynamism of Vietnam's exports.

The rapid economic growth of the 1990s was largelyassociated with strong export growth; its exports of goods and services climbed by '28 percent per annum in 1990s, four times as fast as world trade.

Ministry of Trade statistics reveal Vietnam's merchandiseexports registered $14.5 billion last year. Crude oil alone accounted for a quarter ofthis figure, while three other product groups -textiles and garments, marine products andfootwear together accounted for a third of total earnings.